Oracle vs. SAP: Divergence in International Spending Intentions

With the shift from on-premise to off-premise software in 2013, our data largely boded poorly for both Oracle and SAP last year.  On face value looking at ALL respondents, the data looks somewhat improved for 2014.  However, we view SAP favorably in 2014, versus Oracle which we view poorly for 2014.  This is due to the significant divergence in spending trends for the two in Large International organizations (3rd table down).  While Oracle is clearly doing better than SAP among large U.S. organizations, it is the International data we find more meaningful, as neither vendor generates the majority of its revenues in the United States. The following cuts side-by-side below highlight the trend we’re capturing.

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ALL RESPONDENTS / SECTORS - ORACLE VS. SAP

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INTERNATIONAL ONLY - ORACLE VS SAP

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 LARGE INTERNATIONAL ONLY - ORACLE VS SAP

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LARGE U.S. ONLY - ORACLE VS SAP

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All the best,
Tom

Thomas DelVecchio
Director, Enterprise Technology Research (ETR)
tdelvecchio@etechnologyresearch.com

Imperva & InfoSec Pure Plays among U.S. Large Org Respondents

With Imperva pre-announcing negatively last night, we wanted to highlight relevant data with regards to the CEO’s comments from the very-soon-to-be published 2014 reconciled Technology Spending Intentions Survey (reconciles January’s original 2014 survey with March’s Pulse Check Survey).

“Based on our preliminary analysis, our first quarter results were primarily impacted by extended sales cycles on deals over $100,000, which led to delays in receiving anticipated orders from customers, particularly in the U.S., which resulted in lower than expected revenue for products…” -Imperva President and CEO, Shlomo Kramer

As you can see below by comparing tables 1 (MAR14) and 2 (JAN14), Imperva was one of three vendors among the Information Security pure plays (6) to decelerate in March from January among respondents with Large U.S. Organizations - with Fortinet and Proofpoint being the other two. In fact among this group, Imperva decelerated the most in the last three months and year-over-year versus last March 2013. Bear in mind, we caught a large uptick among these respondents for Imperva last September regarding 2H13 spending intentions. It then decelerated in January 2014 versus September 2013 - and even further lower now versus January.

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Large U.S. Organizations Only:

  • Check point (n=43, +4) accelerated +2 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 40%. Up +9 pts. versus March 2013.
  • Palo Alto Networks (n=42, +9) accelerated +14 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 50%.Up +8 pts. versus March 2013.
  • FireEye (n=35, +3) accelerated +2 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 40%. Down -5 pts. versus March 2013.
  • Fortinet (n=31, +3) decelerated -4 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 3%. Down -17 pts. versus March 2013.
  • Proofpoint (n=21, +3) decelerated -3 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 19%. Did not begin tracking until JUL13.
  • Imperva (n=19, +3) decelerated -5 pts. MAR14 vs JAN14 to a 2014 net score of 26%. Down -20 pts. versus March 2013.

MARCH 2014 INFORMATION SECURITY PURE PLAY VENDORS - LARGE U.S. ORGANIZATIONS ONLY:image

JANUARY 2014 INFORMATION SECURITY PURE PLAY VENDORS - LARGE U.S. ORGANIZATIONS ONLY:image


All the best,
Tom

Thomas DelVecchio
Director, Enterprise Technology Research (ETR)
tdelvecchio@etechnologyresearch.com

Change in IT Spending Intentions Paints a Positive Picture for 2014

The Spring End User Pulse Check Survey closed yesterday afternoon.  In less than three weeks, 66% (n=284) of the 2014 Technology Spending Intentions Survey's 432 respondents (DEC13/JAN14) participated in the Pulse Check update survey and process.  We intend to publish a quick takes note highlighting the most compelling data points and trends from the data changes in the last three months.

We want to take a moment to highlight a subset from the first question from the Pulse Check surveys.  We instituted the Spring version of the Pulse Check survey in March 2012.  Each March we have started the survey with the same question, “As compared to the start of this year, and the responses you provided approximately three months ago regarding current calendar year vs. previous calendar year spending intentions - did your actual spend in Q1 and/or spending intentions for the remainder of current calendar year change from what was your gameplan and budget then (~January 1st)?”

We’ve always provided the same five options to the previous question; Significantly More (>= +7%), Somewhat More (+2% to +7%), Basically the Same (+2% to -2%), Somewhat Less (-2% to -7%) and Considerably Less (<= -7%). 

Every year the response most frequently selected is Basically the Same with very little variance over the last three years (51.4% - 55.2% of respondents, 2012 - 2014).  In truth, I’ve felt the Somewhat More and Somewhat Less options are quite incremental and hence, a non-factor in material changes in full year IT spending intentions.  However, it’s the most negative and positive options that truly matter; Significantly More and Considerably Less as they indicate a true departure or change for an organization versus what they had originally intended just three months prior.  From a net perspective (% of Significantly More ”n” -MINUS- % of Considerably Less “n”), the March 2014 Pulse Check data is the most bullish versus the past two years (see table below).  

This becomes even more meaningful when put in context with what the survey’s net score was entering the year, as the March question is purely relative to what they believed then. This January’s net score was the highest of the past three years’ net scores and in combination with the acceleration indicated this March via the net positive sizable change in spending intentions - results in 2014 looking quite strong from an enterprise IT spending perspective.  In fact, this is the only year in the last three that had a net positive percentage of respondents indicating Significantly More versus Considerably Less (MAR14: +5.34%, MAR13: -0.56%, MAR12: -1.90%). 

ETR SPRING PULSE CHECK TIME-SERIES (2012 - 2014) - CHANGE IN SPENDING INTENTIONS MAR VS. JAN

All the best,

Tom

Change in 2014 IT Spending Intentions & the Vendors that have Accelerated/Decelerated

The Spring Pulse Check Survey closes today, but at this point the 2014 Net score of the entire survey stands at 29.22%, which is a strong score historically, but a touch lower than where it stood post January’s 2014 survey (29.45%). 

While more end users indicated their budgets had improved for Q1 and/or for the entirety of 2014 since January 1st than had indicated their budgets had declined since then, the survey’s net score did not improve.  This is likely just a factor of our methodology, as many of those that are indicating upticks in spend on vendors now were already indicating increases on those same vendors y/y in January.  Hence, a vendor’s net score would not improve materially in that scenario, as their original increase response 3-4 months ago can not be upgraded by their positive reply now.

Below, you’ll find the 27 vendors that have at this point: (1) accelerated >=2 points since January, (2) >=30 citations in any one sector, (3) a 2014 net score >=29%, (4) a Y/Y net score Delta of >=0 (MAR14 vs. MAR13), and (5) are public.

But since we know so many of you are bound to ask… below, you’ll find the 34 vendors that have at this point: (1) decelerated >=1 point since January, (2) >=30 citations in any one sector, (3) a 2014 net score <50%, (4) a Y/Y net score Delta of <0 (MAR14 vs. MAR13), and (5) are public.

Even further below, you’ll find the 24 vendors that have at this point: (1) decelerated >=1 point since January, and (2) a 2014 net score >=40%.  helpful to find high fliers and monsters that have seen any decel as of late.

(1) accelerated >=2 points since January, (2) >=30 citations in any one sector, (3) a 2014 net score >=29%, (4) a Y/Y net score Delta of >=0 (MAR14 vs. MAR13), and (5) are public

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(1) decelerated <=1 point since January, (2) >=30 citations in any one sector, (3) a 2014 net score <50%, (4) a Y/Y net score Delta of <0 (MAR14 vs. MAR13), and (5) are public

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(1) decelerated >=1 point since January, and (2) a 2014 net score >=40%

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Thomas DelVecchio
Director, Enterprise Technology Research (ETR)
tdelvecchio@etechnologyresearch.com

Thoughts from the Field: Spring Pulse Check Survey (n=240+)

The Spring End User Pulse Check Survey launched two weeks ago and thus far, over 240 high-level enterprise IT end users have already completed this follow-up/update survey (72% U.S.).  Bear in mind, this survey was ONLY sent to the original 431 respondents that completed the 2014 Technology Spending Intentions Survey conducted from mid-December 2013 through mid-January 2014.  Therefore, a more than half or >55% of the original sample has already completed the Pulse Check survey within the first two weeks of polling.  A secure and live link to the survey’s polling is provided below along with a password. 

While it’s still too early to read much into any vendor specific trends, it is already useful to see if respondents’ Q1 and/or for the full year spending intentions have accelerated or decelerated versus what they had originally intended 3.5 months ago.  Thus far, it appears IT spend has accelerated versus their original expectations.

As for the sectors of unexpected vendor spending WEAKNESS or STRENGTH thus far this year AND/OR for the remainder of 2014 versus their original 2014 spending intentions, Information Security, Storage, Servers and Networking lead the positives - while TeleCom / Mobile, Enterprise Applications Software, Business Processes Software and Outsourced IT / IT Consulting lead the negatives.

As soon as there is enough vendor-specific data to warrant a note highlighting the names standing out the most positively and negatively, we will publish such immediately.  We anticipate that will occur later this week.  

SECURE & LIVE LINK TO THE SPRING PULSE CHECK SURVEY  (cap-sensitive password:  Spring2014 )

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Workday: Big Acceleration Y/Y & Big Large Enterprise Adoptions

Put aside the valuation of WorkDay shares for the purposes of this market research note.

Workday’s 2014 Net spending Intentions score has reached an all-time high in our work since we began surveying upon them in June 2012.  This represents a significant acceleration versus one year ago and even just 5-6 months ago.  A bit more about that previous statement.  While Workday has had solid adoption numbers and solid Net scores previously in our work, it has not had scores commensurate to what most would anticipate to see in our work.  We believe this is due to two factors: (1) its customers number in the hundreds - not in thousands, and (2) those customers have not been as big in organization size as our sample composition is.  This is why the data inflecting so significantly stands out to us, because it tells us that they’re bringing on bigger customers that are more in line with our sample’s mix.  More evidence of this can be found in the fact that Workday was the 11th most cited vendor in the Hosted Software subgroup just 6 months ago and it’s now the 5th most cited name in the 23-vendor space.  Additionally, one out of every 4.5 Workday respondents indicated that they’re a new vendor Adoption in 2014 for their organizations - 100% of these Adopters are with Large organizations.

However, one must keep in mind that while our data for 2H13 was quite up versus 2H12, the Net score did not significantly accelerate into 2H13 from the January 2013 work and the Net score actually decelerated a bit into Q4CY13 in our September work for 2H13 versus the data originally captured in July for 2H13.  This is by no means damning, but with a big expectation name such as this, we’d obviously prefer to have no signs of Net score deceleration.  We feel the 2H13 vs. 2H12 comparison is more meaningful than the SEP13 vs. JUL13 comparison and again, the 2H13/2H12 acceleration was good. Additionally, the Net score deceleration we captured in September versus July was primarily due to receiving new citations (Workday respondents) that indicated Flat - it was not caused by repeat respondents reversing course from an Increase or Flat response in July to a Flat or Decrease response in September.      

As many of you have already heard from us, we feel this data is quite reminiscent of Splunk's data from late 2012 into 2013; modest decel into Q4CY12, followed by skyrocketing 2013 data recorded in late December '12/early January '13 - especially from large, big wallet organizations.

Unfortunately, we cannot produce regression results as of yet, as we have only tracked Workday since June 2012.  With Q4CY13 yet to be reported, we cannot map our 2013 or 2H13 work versus full year 2013 or 2H13 actual revenues.  This will no longer be the case after next week’s report. 

Bottomline: The data is very positive for 2014 and it’s quite obviously a vendor still winning and accelerating further among the biggest buyers in the world.  So yeah, we like it.  

  • Best ever recorded Net score of 66% (n=32), previous best was March 2013 with a 26%.
  • Best ever recorded Adoption rates of 22%. 
  • All respondents that indicated Adoption are Large organizations.  

Best ever recorded Net score of 67% among Large Enterprises (n=24).

  • Adoption rate of 29% among Large Enterprise respondents.

Net score of 69% among Holy Trinity respondents (n=13, North American or EMEA-based Large Organizations in either the Financials/Insurance, Government or Healthcare/Pharma verticals).

  • This is the 2nd best 2014 Net score among Holy Trinity respondents in the 23-vendor Hosted Software subgroup lagging only Salesforce (2014 Net=81%, n=27).

Net score of 50% among the “BIG 61” respondents (n=8, Organizations with greater than 50,000 employees that have repeatedly taken the survey). Net score of 78% among Financials/Insurance respondents (n=9).

  • This represents a +58 point improvement CY14/CY13 and is the best score in the space - tied with Salesforce.  


Workday & the Hosted Software subgroup 
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Workday & the Hosted Software subgroup - Large Organizations Only 
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Workday & the Hosted Software subgroup - Holy trinity respondents Only 
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Workday & the Hosted Software subgroup - BIG 61 respondents Only 
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Workday & the Hosted Software subgroup - Financials/Insurance respondents Only 
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Quick Takes: Vendors Positive & Negative

With the survey now closed and the Findings Report very soon to be published, we wanted to highlight the names that stood out Positively and Negatively. 


Positives:

  • salesforce: Inflecting across every sector and most so in Hosted software (ExactTarget too) especially biggest buyers when cut by large enterprises.
  • Workday: BIG Positive Inflection, Adoptions all from Large Enterprises and data is similar to Splunk at this time last year (big jump in ‘n’ too)
  • Splunk: High adoptions in both InfoSec (17%) & Analytics (13%), highest trajectories yet in both sectors, accelerating over every time period and is now the 5th most cited name in Analytics jumping over Informatica (FYI Informatica would be on the POS list for 2014 but want to see the Q4CY13 #s first) and SAS
  • Tableau: High adoptions in Analytics (16%), highest trajectory yet (51%), accelerating over every time period, only 1 person (out of 45) indicating anything negative.Though it did decel a touch into Q4CY13 vs. Q3 and a good deal of its Bigger respondents have shifted to FLAT ‘14/’13 only 6-12 months after adopting
  • ServiceNow: Lower score than other high fliers but higher adoption rate (25%) than every high growth public company with an ‘n’ over 30 in our survey.Worried it may not be growing outside of IT service desk and plan to drill into Flat respondents.
  • Qlik: Picked up into Q4CY13 (after the -12pt deceleration we caught into 3Q) and even more acceleration into 2014. High adoptions (14%) + highest trajectory we’ve ever caught (44%), showing BIG strength in EMEA, where it also accelerated into Q413.
  • Check Point: Best data in 4 yrs (better than late 2H11) and most importantly accelerating significantly among EMEA respondents.
  • FireEye: High adoptions (17%), high score (48%) and accelerating nicely y/y, looks good in U.S. Govt. & BIG TelCo.
  • Palo Alto Networks: 24% adoption rate (a lot of steam among Midsize & SMB), which is the highest in all of InfoSec and higher than we have ever previously captured for Palo Alto.
  • Rackspace: Strong acceleration in Hosting / Cloud Services in Small & Mid-sized enterprises for the first time in several surveys.
  • F5 Networks: Accelerated into 4QCY13 but real upside comes from 2014 given large accelerations across the board vs. SEP13 and MAR13 in Networking & InfoSec. Nice adoptions & nobody replacing.Also looks good among BIG TelCo and better than Netscaler (Citrix) when side-by-side
  • Compuware (and Gomez too): smaller n name in the work, but looked healthy for Q4CY13 and has really improved y/y in both names and zero decreasing or replacing responses for either name for 2014.
  • SolarWinds: Expect execution to improve in 2014 as data is finally picking up in Infrastructure SW & Networking vs. the big decelerations we caught in JUL13…but still not back to best SWI data in SEP12
  • Infoblox: Interesting small cap growth co w/n of 30, reaching 30% score, accelerating nicely vs. weak 2H13 data and nice adoption-to-replacing (0%) ratio.Looks Good among Big buyers.
  • Cisco: Better than sentiment & investor expectations after guide down as Networking picking up overall, among “Holy Trinity” cut. Important to note that it’s improving in EMEA vs. SEP13 & MAR13…improving in APAC, too, vs. 2H13 but not back to MAR13 or MAR12 levels. Looks good among U.S. Govt as well.
  • Microsoft: Strong across the board but especially in Data Warehousing, Hosting/Cloud Services, & Infrastructure SW, weakness in Servers and better data for 2014 than Q4CY13
  • Oracle: Data OK overall, looks best in Analytics/B.I. & Data Warehousing (EXA-everything) but stronger when cut by 1) Large Enterprise (~80% of revs from ~20% of customers); 2) Those respondents that have budgets that are more “1H Seasonal”
  • Accenture: Finally picking up in both IT Consulting & Outsourced IT, but not most exciting data and better against Cognizant and Infosys and even better when cut by the BIG 61 macro.
  • Polycom: Most importantly, 1) picking up in Video Conferencing & 2) in US Gov’t cut.
  • Imperva: Waiting for the good 2H13 data - that was the previous guide - to become a good print and the data still looks strong enough (though not as strong) among the big shops for 2014.Likely inline with its seasonality. Better for Q4 than 2014 at this point.
  • Open Text: Still really like this name because all else seem to hate it and the Q4 data seems very good, 2014 seems good enough at this point, given who is saying it.
  • Aruba Networks: While the n is down, the data for 2014 (not Q4 so much), is good with their current client base.Worth looking into and BTW no one asks us about this name anymore
  • Riverbed: Looks stronger than consensus topline estimates suggest for 2014 and across all lines; WAN Opt, Cascade, and even OPNET finally
  • Intuit: not the best use of our work given its customer base’s typical size, but the data is greatly improved y/y
  • Concur: Not a fan of this company, but the data has improved y/y well.

Noteworthy move to neutral:  TIBCO has decel’ed over the last two weeks in its core middleware/SOA biz, but still looks better than it ever has in Spotfire.  We do not like it overall as much as we did when the survey was still mid-way done.


Negatives:

  • Storage (2014, NOT 4Q): Out of 24 enterprise sectors we track, only two names have scores above 30%Storage accelerated 3rd most into 4Q but decelerates the most into 2014 vs. both 2H13 (SEP) & 2013 (MAR) - only . However, given there isn’t much “expectation” in the space.
  • CommVault: probably the one vendor where our negative data is most contrarian to expectations given the multiple & growth expectations - again not damning for Q4CY13, but concerned over the next 4 months. Bad looking in Infrastructure SW too.Think of it this way: when we pounded on the table in June & September 2012 the score was a 53%. It’s now 18%.Look into Veeam, Look into Actifio, don’t only look at Symantec and Dell/Quest/AppAssure - but look at them too.
  • NetApp: Q4CY13 looks safe, the 2014 data for EMEA is awful (~31% of revs).Very bad for Retail/Consumer and Healthcare/Pharma too.
  • Nimble Storage: The data just simply does not look strong enough given the story.
  • Teradata: Strong in N. America & EMEA into 4Q but did rest of world pick up after 3Q biz disaster in APAC. 2014 data weak in Data Warehousing and further deceleration ex-financials/insurance respondents, while Oracle accelerates nicely, as does Redshift (Amazon) and Cloudera, all with much higher scores among the same respondents. Not a promising combination of data for 2014.
  • Fortinet: Accelerated quite well overall into 4Q overall and internationally, BUT decelerating in 2014 vs. SEP13 & MAR13 overall and internationally while others look strong and looks soft among BIG TelCo.   
  • SAP: Very weak in N. America given down vs. MAR13 in all 9 places that we track SAP.
  • Cognizant: Looked best in Outsourced IT and IT Consulting in 2013 data but now starting to decelerate quite a bit in both vs. MAR13 while ACN picks up
  • Citrix: while its improved versus the BAD data we captured for 2H13 last July, the data is still down y/y especially among big buyers on desktop virtualization and Netscaler is down y/y for the first and doesn’t look as good as F5 Networks there.Zenprise is almost a no show in MDM thus vs. AirWatch which looks great (VMware).
  • Blackberry: 'nuff said.
  • Equinix: Not terrible, but do not like the dynamic of the other smaller names gaining adoptions, while its trajectory has dropped y/y.Plus, bad among the Big Boys.
  • Symantec: The storage data is so poor that we can’t feel safe at these levels even though expectations are low and the InfoSec data is sound.
  • Proofpoint: smaller n in the survey (27) and did look good into Q4CY13, but post that and looking at 2014 its decel’ed and expectations are big
  • IBM: Long-term problems, Down y/y & Down survey-over-survey across the board and even though its slightly improved in IT consulting and Outsourced IT among BIG buyers, the DataWarehousing piece (ie- mainframe) looks BAD; No trojan horse = no biz.”Buy IBM if you want to be short innovation…” brilliant and accurate, sir.
  • Constant Contact: Not an ideal name, but I find it very interesting that it looks very poor past Q4 and looks so among SMB and Midsize respondents too.
  • MicroStrategy: Has given up all the good will we captured for it last March 2013.Very bad for 2014 in North American Large Enterprises for Q4 and 2014.
  • Jive Software: perked up a bit into Q4CY13 and is better now for 2014 than the bad 2H13 data, but down y/y and likely not enough.

AirWatch & MDM Sector Snapshot

As of yesterday morning, over 425 high-level enterprise IT end users from over 30 nations had participated in the 2014 Technology Spending Intentions Survey since its launch in mid-December (~72% U.S.).

We felt a snapshot of the MDM sector and AirWatch could be helpful given the acquisition news.

Bottomline:  One of the most disruptive names in our work since last July and we feel its a great move from a technology roadmap perspective.  Bad for Citrix

2014 MOBILE DEVICE MANAGEMENT SECTOR (n =141) 


Dear Target, you’re horrible. Respectfully, ETR

I’m sorry, I understand that data breaches are unavoidable and that’s not going to stop any time soon. HOWEVER, if you’re going to send an email to all your clients who’s information was jeopardized and provide a “credit monitoring tool”, maybe you should provide via a secure link!? Ay dios mio..

Dear Target Guest,

As you may have heard or read, Target learned in mid-December that criminals forced their way into our systems and took guest information, including debit and credit card data. Late last week, as part of our ongoing investigation, we learned that additional information, including name, mailing address, phone number or email address, was also taken. I am writing to make you aware that your name, mailing address, phone number or email address may have been taken during the intrusion.

I am truly sorry this incident occurred and sincerely regret any inconvenience it may cause you. Because we value you as a guest and your trust is important to us, Target is offering one year of free credit monitoring to all Target guests who shopped in U.S. stores, through Experian’s® ProtectMyID® product which includes identity theft insurance where available. To receive your unique activation code for this service, please go to http://creditmonitoring.target.com and register before April 23, 2014. Activation codes must be redeemed by April 30, 2014.

In addition, to guard against possible scams, always be cautious about sharing personal information, such as Social Security numbers, passwords, user IDs and financial account information. Here are some tips that will help protect you:

Never share information with anyone over the phone, email or text, even if they claim to be someone you know or do business with. Instead, ask for a call-back number.
Delete texts immediately from numbers or names you don’t recognize.
Be wary of emails that ask for money or send you to suspicious websites. Don’t click links within emails you don’t recognize.
Target’s email communication regarding this incident will never ask you to provide personal or sensitive information.
Thank you for your patience and loyalty to Target. You can find additional information and FAQs about this incident at our Target.com/databreach website. If you have further questions, you may call us at  image866-852-8680.
Gregg Steinhafel

Chairman, President and CEO

DROP in Storage Spending Intentions

As of now, not one single vendor in our 29-vendor Storage sector has a 2014 Net spending intentions score over 30%.  By comparison, last January we had 9 vendors with 2013 Net scores of 30% or greater in the then 28-vendor space - and last January’s 2013 score for Storage was the 2nd worst score we’ve ever recorded for the space.  The Storage sector’s citation-weighted 2014 Net score is currently 10.17%.  This is - by a meaningful margin - the worst forward-looking score we have ever captured for our Storage space.  Previously, the worst scores for the storage space were last January 2013’s score of 17.89% and January 2010’s score of 17.67%.  Please bear in mind that the comments within this note refer to 2014 spending intentions and not Q4CY13.

Granted, we have added many vendors to the sector over the last few years and this could seemingly weigh down the space’s score.  These are names such as Western Digital, Seagate, Fusion-IO, etc.  However, if we cut the data to only the 18 vendors that were included in the Storage sector in January 2012, the 2014 Net score for these 18 vendors is still a surprisingly low 10.99%.

PRELIMINARY 2014 STORAGE SECTOR  (click on link to the left to open the table in a new window)

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